How do you read KenPom ratings?

Luck rating (Luck): KenPom defines this as a measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).

How accurate are KenPom ratings?

KenPom got the exact total correct 19 times (2.98 percent) and was within five points 157 times (24.6 percent). KenPom’s projected total was less than the actual total 309 times, and it was more than the actual total 310 times.

What is the KenPom luck rating?

At least, that’s what Ken Pomeroy’s analytics say. According to KenPom, which is an analytics-based website based on pace of play metrics, the Hawkeyes have been one of college basketball’s unluckiest teams this season. Iowa has a luck rating of -0.007, which ranks 303rd out of 357 Division I teams.

What is AdjEM in KenPom?

Adjusted Efficiency Margin, or AdjEM, is the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency. AdjEM = AdjOE – AdjDE. AdjEM is used to rate teams. It was introduced by KenPom prior to the 2016-2017 season, and it’s detailed in this blog post.

How are Sagarin ratings calculated?

This rating takes into account not only a team’s win-loss and strength-of-schedule (a combination of opponents’ win-loss record, and win-loss record of the opponents of the opponents), but also margin of victory and the number of “quality wins.”

Does KenPom adjust for injuries?

That includes injuries, which KenPom specifically does not factor in. Although it’s not made clear, the Sagarin ratings also do not appear to take injuries into account.

What is AdjEM?

What adjusted efficiency margin wants to capture is how much better (or worse) you might be on an average possession against an average opponent on a neutral floor. That average opponent would have an AdjEM of 0.0 — they would allow just as many points as they score on a possession.

How is offensive efficiency calculated?

Offensive Efficiency Calculate the number of total number of possessions for your team using the formula: field goals attempted – offensive rebounds + turnovers + (0.4 x free throws attempted) = total number of possessions for the season. Numbers above 1.0 are generally considered good.

What is adjusted offensive efficiency?

Adjusted offensive efficiency – An estimate of the offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I defense. Adjusted defensive efficiency – An estimate of the defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I offense.

How accurate is BPI?

In accuracy of the percent chance to win, BPI had an average mean absolute error of 0.328. Teams that were given a greater than 50 percent chance to win a game ended up winning 74.9 percent of them.

What is KenPom statistics?

KenPom measures teams based on efficiency to not only paint a picture of how a basketball team compares to the rest of the nation, but also a fairly predictive formula that can chart where a team might be heading, as well.

How do you read KenPom ratings? Luck rating (Luck): KenPom defines this as a measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will…